Ekonomistler, son 27 \u00e7eyrektir kesintisiz b\u00fcy\u00fcyen T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, yurt i\u00e7i ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki zor konjonkt\u00fcre kar\u015f\u0131n y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
AA muhabirinin T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) verilerinden derledi\u011fi bilgiye g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 5,7 ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 4,7 seviyelerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte, piyasa beklentilerinin hafif alt\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3,1 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler, konuya ili\u015fkin AA muhabirine yapt\u0131klar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerde, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6zel ve kamu t\u00fcketimi kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu, yat\u0131r\u0131m alan\u0131nda katk\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin son 27 \u00e7eyrektir b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade eden ekonomistler, Fetullah\u00e7\u0131 Ter\u00f6r \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (FET\u00d6) 15 Temmuz\u2019daki darbe giri\u015fimi, jeopolitik riskler, ABD ve Avrupa ekonomilerinin toparlanamamas\u0131 gibi olumsuzluklara kar\u015f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
AA Finans Analisti ve ekonomist Haluk B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendinin g\u00fcc\u00fcne ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergenin pozitif b\u00f6lgede kalsa da, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re belirgin yava\u015flamay\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,3 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, ula\u015f\u0131lan noktan\u0131n yeni tarihi en y\u00fcksek seviyeye de i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirterek, \u201c\u00d6nceki \u00e7eyrekte ise y\u00fczde 0,8 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlenmi\u015fti. Trend analizlerinde genellikle son \u00e7eyrekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131larak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u00fczde 1,2 d\u00fczeyindeki y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme momentumun ciddi g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcrd\u00fc.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\u00dcretim y\u00f6ntemiyle hesaplanan GSYH verilerinin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte lokomotif sekt\u00f6rler olarak in\u015faat ve hizmetlerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, harcamalar y\u00f6ntemiyle hesaplanan GSYH verilerinin yurt i\u00e7i t\u00fcketimin h\u0131z keserek devam etti\u011fini, \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ise \u00e7ok zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n
\u201cHarcama gruplar\u0131 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye en y\u00fcksek katk\u0131n\u0131n yurt i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim ve kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan geldi\u011fi izleniyor. \u00d6zel yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131 yine negatif oldu. D\u0131\u015f talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi en fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken grup oldu. Kamunun katk\u0131s\u0131 yine y\u00fcksek oldu. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ilk i\u015faretler 3\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin uzun s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimizi y\u00fczde 3,2\u2019den y\u00fczde 3\u2019e indirirken, tahmin \u00fczerindeki risklerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekteyiz.\u201d<\/p>\n
Halk Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ba\u015fekonomisti Banu K\u0131vc\u0131 Tokal\u0131 da mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ekonominin aral\u0131ks\u0131z son 8 \u00e7eyrektir b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ederek, \u201cHatta, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011findeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edildi\u011finde, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren \u00e7eyreklik bazda aral\u0131ks\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00f6z konusu.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Tokal\u0131, ilk yar\u0131da y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3,9 seviyesinde bulundu\u011funu, ikinci yar\u0131ya ili\u015fkin risklerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu belirterek, \u201c\u00d6zellikle 3\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe ait \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, hem 15 Temmuz\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z darbe giri\u015fiminin olumsuz etkisi hem de iki bayram\u0131 i\u00e7eren d\u00f6nem olmas\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir yava\u015flama olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Son \u00e7eyrekte tekrar toparlanman\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131 alt\u0131nda, t\u00fcm y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminimizi koruyoruz.\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc dile getirdi<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015f Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ara\u015ft\u0131rma B\u00f6l\u00fcm Y\u00f6netmeni Muammer K\u00f6m\u00fcrc\u00fco\u011flu ise y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcmede bir ivme kayb\u0131 ya\u015fansa da bile\u015fenlerinde bir de\u011fi\u015fim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ederek, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte oldu\u011fu gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tamam\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zel ve kamu t\u00fcketimi kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
K\u00f6m\u00fcrc\u00fco\u011flu, \u201cYap\u0131sal reform yol haritas\u0131nda kayda de\u011fer bir yol al\u0131nmamas\u0131 ve piyasalardaki oynakl\u0131k bir kez daha yat\u0131r\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu ba\u011flamda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler de canl\u0131 kal\u0131yor.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z darbe giri\u015fimi ve t\u0131rmanan ter\u00f6r eylemleri nedeniyle 3\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u00f6t\u00fc bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapan ekonominin a\u011fustos itibar\u0131yla tekrar toparlanmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak kendi hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re bu toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen 3\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamaya devam edece\u011fini belirten K\u00f6m\u00fcrc\u00fco\u011flu, \u201cEkonomi y\u00f6netimin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirler ve i\u00e7 talepte canlanma ile y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019ta kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ekonomistler, son 27 \u00e7eyrektir kesintisiz b\u00fcy\u00fcyen T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin, yurt i\u00e7i ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki zor konjonkt\u00fcre kar\u015f\u0131n y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. AA muhabirinin T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) verilerinden derledi\u011fi bilgiye g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 5,7 ve bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 4,7 seviyelerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte, piyasa beklentilerinin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2720,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[26,27],"tags":[67,3499,11105,3489,11361,11322,11108,96],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5776"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5776"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5776\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5777,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5776\/revisions\/5777"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2720"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5776"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5776"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}