{"id":28799,"date":"2019-07-17T09:51:09","date_gmt":"2019-07-17T06:51:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/?p=28799"},"modified":"2019-07-17T09:51:09","modified_gmt":"2019-07-17T06:51:09","slug":"kuzey-anadolu-fayinda-7-5-7-4-ve-7-2-buyuklugunde-depremler-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/?p=28799","title":{"rendered":"Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019nda 7.5, 7.4 ve 7.2 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde depremler bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi, \u0130T\u00dc ve Ankara \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nden bilim insanlar\u0131 \u0130stanbul ve \u00e7evresinde tarih boyunca ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f \u00f6nemli depremleri inceledi. Son 1500 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6nemli depremlerinin verilerini ara\u015ft\u0131ran uzmanlar, Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130stanbul merkezine uzanan 160 km uzunlu\u011fundaki segmentinde seri halinde olu\u015fmu\u015f tarihsel depremleri inceleyerek potansiyel deprem senaryolar\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Tectonophysics dergisinde A\u011fustos 2019 say\u0131s\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanacak makalede yer alan kestirimlere g\u00f6re \u0130stanbul\u2019un hemen g\u00fcneyinde yer alan Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019nda do\u011fudan bat\u0131ya do\u011fru s\u0131ras\u0131yla 7.5, 7.4 ve 7.2 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde depremler bekleniyor.<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n

Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Prof. Dr. Haluk \u00d6zener, Jeodezi Anabilim Dal\u0131 \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyeleri Do\u00e7.Dr. Fatih Bulut, Do\u00e7. Dr. Asl\u0131 Do\u011fru, \u0130T\u00dc Jeoloji M\u00fchendisli\u011fi B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyesi Prof. Dr. Cenk Yalt\u0131rak<\/strong> ve Ankara \u00dcniversitesi Jeofizik M\u00fchendisli\u011fi \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyesi Prof. Dr. Bahad\u0131r Aktu\u011f<\/strong>\u2019un yazarlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 makalede ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar son 1500 y\u0131l\u0131n deprem verilerini inceleyerek \u0130stanbul ve \u00e7evresinde beklenen olas\u0131 depremin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair senaryolar haz\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz verileri \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda haz\u0131rlanan ara\u015ft\u0131rma kapsam\u0131nda Marmara B\u00f6lgesinde Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi segmentlerin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Bat\u0131 (Tekirda\u011f havzas\u0131), Merkez(Kumburgaz havzas\u0131) ve Do\u011fu (\u00c7\u0131narc\u0131k Havzas\u0131) olmak \u00fczere b\u00f6lgenin tarih boyunca ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 depremler incelendi. 1766\u2019da iki ve 1509\u2019da bir olmak \u00fczere 7.2, 7.4 ve 7.5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinde depremlerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgede gelecekte potansiyel olarak ya\u015fanabilecek deprem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair senaryolar geli\u015ftirildi.<\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya kat\u0131lan bilim insanlar\u0131ndan Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Jeodezi Anabilim Dal\u0131 \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyesi Do\u00e7. Dr. Fatih Bulut,<\/strong><\/p>\n

bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada faylar\u0131n en son ne zaman k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra y\u0131lda ne kadar enerji biriktirdi\u011fi ve biriken enerji tamamen a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda sonu\u00e7lara ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Bulut, tarihi a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6zellikle son 500 y\u0131l\u0131n depremlerini ayr\u0131ca incelediklerini belirterek \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\u2018\u2019Bu parametreleri bulmak i\u00e7in tarihsel depremlere, Marmara Denizi’ndeki faylar\u0131n yap\u0131s\u0131na ve GPS yoluyla da yery\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fcn yanal olarak y\u0131lda ne kadar hareket biriktirdi\u011fine bakt\u0131k; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Kuzey Anadolu fay\u0131 yanal bir sistem. Bu bulgular\u0131 birle\u015ftirdi\u011fimizde \u015f\u00f6yle bir sonu\u00e7 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: Bir fay segmentinin olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 deprem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc o segmentin uzunlu\u011fu, derinli\u011fi ve \u00fczerinde biriktirdi\u011fi hareket miktar\u0131n\u0131n bir fonksiyonudur. \u00d6rne\u011fin harekete ge\u00e7ecek segmentin uzunlu\u011funu ve derinli\u011fini yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z jeolojik ve sismolojik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda biliyoruz. Jeodezik verilere g\u00f6re, 250 y\u0131l \u00f6nce k\u0131r\u0131lan bir fay segmenti y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 cm hareket biriktiriyorsa, \u015fu anda harekete ge\u00e7se deprem an\u0131nda fay \u00fczerinde ortalama 2,5 m’lik bir yerde\u011fi\u015ftirme olu\u015fturur. Bunun da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geldi\u011fi \u201cmanyit\u00fcd\u201d dedi\u011fimiz bir deprem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck de\u011feri var. \u0130\u015fte deprem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck kestirimlerimizi size bu yakla\u015f\u0131k say\u0131larla aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131m yakla\u015f\u0131mla \u00e7ok daha detayl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyoruz.<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n

Son 500 y\u0131l \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nemli, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Marmara Denizi’ndeki b\u00fct\u00fcn faylar\u0131n en son k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 periyodun tamam\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan bir zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131. Marmara Denizi\u2019nin do\u011fu kesimindeki \u00c7\u0131narc\u0131k Havza\u2019s\u0131nda bulunan fay en son 1509’da hareket etmi\u015fti. Orta ve bat\u0131 kesimlerindeki Kumburgaz ve Tekirda\u011f Havzalar\u0131\u2019nda bulunan fay segmentleri ise 1766’da hareket etmi\u015fti. Bunlar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamalar\u0131m\u0131zda sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde kapsayabilmek i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 500 y\u0131l \u00f6nceye giderek 1509 depreminden bu yana t\u00fcm s\u00fcre\u00e7lere hakim olmak zorunday\u0131z\u2019\u2019.<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n

Y\u0131ll\u0131k hareket biriktirme miktar\u0131n\u0131 Marmara B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde 100’e yak\u0131n GPS istasyonundan ald\u0131klar\u0131 verilerle hesaplad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 aktaran Bulut, y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama 2,5-3 cm aras\u0131 bir hareket g\u00f6zlediklerini kaydetti. Bu hareketin s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmenin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu yerlerde fay y\u00fczeyinde birikme olarak kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; baz\u0131 yerlerde ise daha h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etti\u011fini ve s\u00fcrt\u00fcnme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok fazla birikmedi\u011fini belirten Do\u00e7. Dr. Fatih Bulut, Marmara B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki GPS istasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 da belirtti.<\/p>\n

1766 ve 1509 k\u0131r\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde 7.2, 7.4 ve 7.5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde depremler \u00fcretme potansiyeline sahip oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Do\u00e7. Dr. Bulut<\/strong>, s\u00f6z konusu kestirimlere,<\/p>\n

biriken hareket miktar\u0131, fay\u0131n uzunlu\u011fu ve fay\u0131n derinli\u011fi verileri \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan aritmetik hesaplama sonucu ula\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. Bulut \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti: \u2018\u2019Son 1500 y\u0131ll\u0131k zaman dilimini yedi zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ay\u0131r\u0131nca g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki her bir k\u00fcme en az d\u00f6rt en fazla alt\u0131 depremi kaps\u0131yor. \u015eu an biz 7. zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hen\u00fcz tamamlamad\u0131k ve yak\u0131n tarihlerde bu kapsamda sadece iki deprem ya\u015fad\u0131k. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 7. zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tamamlamak i\u00e7in istatistiki olarak en az iki en fazla d\u00f6rt deprem daha ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor\u2019\u2019.<\/i><\/strong><\/i><\/p>\n

Do\u00e7. Dr. Bulut, \u2018\u2019Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131 y\u0131lda 2-3 cm kayma ile depremi \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 haz\u0131rlayan bir sistem. Anadolu’da da irili ufakl\u0131 pek \u00e7ok fay var, ama bunlar Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re hareketi daha yava\u015f biriktiriyorlar ve deprem haz\u0131rl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7leri oralarda elimizdeki kay\u0131tlara g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha uzun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in biz onlar\u0131n nerede ve ne b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte deprem \u00fcretece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6remiyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir fay 2000 y\u0131ld\u0131r suskun gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ama her y\u0131l az da olsa 1-2 mm\u2019lik bir hareket biriktirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in bir g\u00fcn beklenmedik bir anda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir deprem meydana getirebiliyor. Depremi Marmara’da beklerken Van’da ya da K\u00fctahya’da olabiliyor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc orada bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 g\u00f6zle rahat g\u00f6r\u00fclemeyecek yava\u015fl\u0131kta ve \u00e7ok uzun bir s\u00fcrede ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Asl\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye’nin bir\u00e7ok yeri i\u00e7in bu tehlike mevcut ama \u0130stanbul n\u00fcfusunun fazla olmas\u0131 olas\u0131 kay\u0131p risklerini art\u0131rmakta\u2019\u2019<\/i><\/strong><\/i>diyerek s\u00f6zlerini noktalad\u0131.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi, \u0130T\u00dc ve Ankara \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nden bilim insanlar\u0131 \u0130stanbul ve \u00e7evresinde tarih boyunca ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f \u00f6nemli depremleri inceledi. Son 1500 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6nemli depremlerinin verilerini ara\u015ft\u0131ran uzmanlar, Kuzey Anadolu Fay\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130stanbul merkezine uzanan 160 km uzunlu\u011fundaki segmentinde seri halinde olu\u015fmu\u015f tarihsel depremleri inceleyerek potansiyel deprem senaryolar\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Tectonophysics dergisinde A\u011fustos 2019 say\u0131s\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanacak makalede yer alan kestirimlere […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27385,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[26],"tags":[9079],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28799"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28799"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28799\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28800,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28799\/revisions\/28800"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}