{"id":27390,"date":"2019-02-21T09:25:03","date_gmt":"2019-02-21T06:25:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/?p=27390"},"modified":"2019-02-21T09:25:03","modified_gmt":"2019-02-21T06:25:03","slug":"konut-sektorunde-satislar-neden-azaldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/?p=27390","title":{"rendered":"Konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sat\u0131\u015flar neden azald\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz sene ya\u015fanan ekonomik dalgalanmalar sonras\u0131 konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu senenin ocak ay\u0131 verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 25\u2019lik bir daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha meydana geldi.\u00a0<\/b>Konut fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan son 8 senelik seyir bize Bodrum, Marmaris, Fethiye gibi tatil b\u00f6lgelerinin oldu\u011fu Mu\u011fla\u2019da y\u00fczde 161 ile en y\u00fcksek konut de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130zmir’de\u00a0ise y\u00fczde 159\u2019a varan de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile \u0130stanbul\u2019u yakalam\u0131\u015f durumda. Ve birlikte ikincili\u011fe oturdular. Antalya’da ise y\u00fczde 137 art\u0131\u015f ile \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada. Antep y\u00fczde 134 ile 4. s\u0131rada, Mersin ile Adana\u00a0da y\u00fczde 126 ile be\u015finci s\u0131rada yer ald\u0131. Do\u011fu\u2019dan, Kuzey\u2019den ve \u0130\u00e7 Anadolu\u2019dan ilgi ve g\u00f6\u00e7 G\u00fcney\u2019e y\u00f6nelmi\u015f son zamanda.<\/p>\n

Son zamanlarda konut piyasas\u0131nda durgunluk var. Ge\u00e7en sene 1 milyon 409 bin rakam\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ilk kez 2009’da konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 toplamda y\u00fczde 2.4 gerilemi\u015f durumda. Bu y\u0131l ocak ay\u0131 verileri yeni a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 25\u2019lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha meydana geldi. Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin ana etkenlerinden birisi konut kredi faizlerindeki y\u00fckseklik, di\u011feri ise eldeki konut sto\u011fundaki art\u0131\u015f, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc ise konjonkt\u00fcrel nedenlerden olabilir.<\/p>\n

Konut kredi faizleri\u00a0iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ipotekli sat\u0131\u015flar ge\u00e7en senenin toplam\u0131nda y\u00fczde 41.5 gerilemi\u015f oldu. Bu sene ocak ay\u0131nda da gerileme y\u00fczde 77.2\u2019ye geldi. Bor\u00e7lanarak konut sat\u0131n alma e\u011filimi \u015fimdilik bitmi\u015f durumda. Enflasyon ile\u00a0birlikte faizlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f halinde bor\u00e7lanarak konut alma iste\u011fi yeniden canlanabilir. Burada kritik e\u015fik de y\u00fczde 12 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz veya ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1 ve alt\u0131ndaki faiz oran\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\n

Faizlerii y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca yan\u0131nda enflasyondaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, i\u015fsizli\u011fin daha da artmas\u0131, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirin\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015fmesi, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentilerdeki g\u00fcven kayb\u0131 olmas\u0131, Mart sonunda yerel se\u00e7imlerin beklenmesi gibi fakt\u00f6rler de konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkiliyor.<\/p>\n

Konutta stoklar sat\u0131\u015flara engel<\/h2>\n

Konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki bir engel ise konut sto\u011funun b\u00fcy\u00fck boyutlara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat\u0131 bitirilen ve al\u0131c\u0131 bekleyen konutlarda ki fazlal\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel. Fiyat\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f olmayacak olan bir konutu yat\u0131r\u0131m amac\u0131 ile kimse almak istemez. D\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi bekleniyor ise fiyatlar\u0131n iyice oturmas\u0131 beklenir.<\/p>\n

Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan konut in\u015faat ve oturma izin belgeleri de sto\u011fun giderek art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ortaya koydu. 2018’de yap\u0131 kullanma izni alan daire say\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.6 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek 871 bine ula\u015ft\u0131. Halbuki ge\u00e7en sene ilk sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lan konut say\u0131s\u0131 660 bindi. K\u0131saca konut sto\u011funa ya da sat\u0131lamayan konutlara 211 bin konut daha eklenmi\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

Konutta stok 1 milyona yak\u0131n<\/h2>\n

Ge\u00e7mi\u015f senelereden artarak gelen say\u0131y\u0131 da hesap etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 5 seneden daha uzun vadeye sarkan konut sto\u011funun az oldu\u011funu tahmin ediyoruz. Bu neden ile son 5 senelik birinci el konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile yap\u0131 kullanma izin belgesi alan daire say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131k. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda 236 bin, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda 134 bin, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda 122 bin, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda 161 bin ve 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nd ise 211 bin konut sat\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bunlar\u0131n toplam\u0131 da 864 bin konut yapar.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye son 5 senede ilk el konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda 3 milyonu ge\u00e7ti ve y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama 618 bin oldu. Buradan hareketle eldeki konut stokuda 1.5 y\u0131ll\u0131k yeni konut talebini kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ancak ge\u00e7en sene de g\u00f6rd\u00fck ki, azalmakla beraber yeni in\u015faat yapmak isteyenler de konut arz\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile piyasa ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na b\u0131rak\u0131l\u0131rsa konut stokunun erimesi y\u0131llar\u0131 alabilir.<\/p>\n

2018’de al\u0131nan yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131nda azalmada h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu. \u0130n\u015faat izni alan daire say\u0131s\u0131 2017\u2019de 1 milyon 377 binden ge\u00e7en sene 643 bine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Gerileme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 53 oldu. Genelde al\u0131nan in\u015faatlar\u0131n izinlerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vazge\u00e7meler ve gecikmeler nedeni ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeler y\u00fczde 70\u2019ler d\u00fczeyinde oluyor.<\/p>\n

Stokun fazla olmas\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na engel<\/h2>\n

Stokta fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131n olmas\u0131 ekonomiye maliyeti finansal kaynaklar\u0131n betona g\u00f6m\u00fclmesi oluyor. Ba\u015fka alanlarda kullan\u0131labilecek kaynaklardan ekonomi mahrum kalm\u0131\u015f oluyor.<\/p>\n

Sto\u011fun as\u0131l veri\u011fi zarar\u0131 ise konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne. Stoktaki fazlal\u0131k bizzat konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel. \u00dcstelik b\u00f6yle bir stok fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131da, konut talebinin son 15 senede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerine indi\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme denk geldi. Bu durumda ya fiyatlar geriler ya da fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 enflasyonun epeyce gerisinde kal\u0131yor. Buna en iyi \u00f6rnek ise ta\u015f\u0131 topra\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131n diye bilinen \u0130stanbul.<\/p>\n

2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda ne oldu?<\/h2>\n

\u0130stanbul konut fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f kalite art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f hali ile 2018’de y\u00fczde 1.3\u2019e indi. T\u00fcrkiye ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.44 art\u0131\u015f ya\u015farken 2018 senesi enflasyonu y\u00fczde 20.30 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Dolar at\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 37.80\u2019i oldu. \u0130stanbul\u2019dan daha k\u00f6t\u00fc durumda olan \u015fehirler ise Batman-Mardin, Erzurum- Erzincan, \u00c7ank\u0131r\u0131-Kastamonu-Sinop, Zonguldak-Bart\u0131n-Karab\u00fck.<\/p>\n

\u0130zmir \u0130stanbul’a yeti\u015fti<\/h2>\n

\u0130stanbul ile \u0130zmir 8 senelikk fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 159 pirim yaparak ba\u015fa ba\u015f durumda \u015fu an. \u0130zmir son y\u0131llarda ya\u011ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 atak ile ve \u0130stanbul\u2019un gerilemesi ile aray\u0131 kapatm\u0131\u015f oldu. \u0130stanbul\u2019dan g\u00f6\u00e7 edenlerin en \u00e7ok y\u00f6neldi\u011fi ilimiz ise \u0130zmir oldu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz sene ya\u015fanan ekonomik dalgalanmalar sonras\u0131 konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu senenin ocak ay\u0131 verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 25\u2019lik bir daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f daha meydana geldi.\u00a0Konut fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan son 8 senelik seyir bize Bodrum, Marmaris, Fethiye gibi tatil b\u00f6lgelerinin oldu\u011fu Mu\u011fla\u2019da y\u00fczde 161 ile en y\u00fcksek konut de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130zmir’de\u00a0ise y\u00fczde 159\u2019a varan de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17151,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[5388],"tags":[1070],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27390"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27390"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27390\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27391,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27390\/revisions\/27391"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17151"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}