{"id":23568,"date":"2018-08-01T22:08:58","date_gmt":"2018-08-01T19:08:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/?p=23568"},"modified":"2018-08-01T22:28:58","modified_gmt":"2018-08-01T19:28:58","slug":"enflasyon-ile-yukselen-faiz-konutta-sektorunde-sermayesi-guclu-gelistiricilerin-donemini-baslatiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/?p=23568","title":{"rendered":"Enflasyon ile y\u00fckselen faiz konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sermayesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geli\u015ftiricilerin d\u00f6nemini ba\u015flat\u0131yor! \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Konutta ortalama kredi faizlerinin % 15,79 seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 ile Haziran enflasyonu ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren Emlakjet Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Gizem Moral Kunter, \u201cMB\u2019nin stratejisi, enflasyonda iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar s\u0131k\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek. Burada kritik konu maliyet enflasyonu.\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Artan kur ortam\u0131nda \u00fcretim girdi maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde tetikleyebilir. MB\u2019nin bug\u00fcn y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahminini % 8,4\u2019ten % 13,4\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi de bu kritik noktaya dikkat \u00e7ekiyor\u201d dedi<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/b>Faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselen seyrinin konut talebini olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini belirten Kunter, \u201cBu nedenle ikincil piyasa mekanizmas\u0131yla bankalar\u0131n kaynak \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme yoluna gitmeleri i\u00e7in daha h\u0131zl\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7ilmeli. Art\u0131k konutta sermayesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olan firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6nemi ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Ucuz arsa temini ise yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmet y\u00f6netiminin sekt\u00f6re ili\u015fkin g\u00fcndeminin ilk s\u0131ras\u0131nda olmal\u0131\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131<\/span><\/b><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Gayrimenkul \u015firketlerinin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 5 pe\u015finat ve y\u00fczde 20 indirim kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n 30 Haziran\u2019da bitmesini takiben konut kredisi faizlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi ba\u015flad\u0131. 13 Temmuz haftas\u0131 itibariyle bankalar\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortalama konut kredisi faizleri bir \u00f6nceki haftaya g\u00f6re 2,33 puan artarak y\u00fczde 15,79 seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015f ise May\u0131s 2004\u2019ten bu yana yani son 14 y\u0131ld\u0131r konut kredisi faizlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen en h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

4 Temmuz\u2019da T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon verilerine g\u00f6re, Haziran ay\u0131nda T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2.61 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 15.39’a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece 2003 bazl\u0131 endeks tarihinin en y\u00fcksek seviyesi kaydedildi. Son olarak\u00a0T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131’ndaki keskin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentileriyle m\u00fccadele etmek i\u00e7in Nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana 500 baz puan faiz art\u0131ran\u00a0<\/span>Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) 24 Temmuz’daki Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda\u00a0<\/span>politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyip faizi % 17,75’te sabit tuttu. Piyasalar ise faizde 100 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f bekliyordu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde belirgin bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi belirtilirken, bug\u00fcn MB\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n 3. enflasyon raporunda y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahminin % 8,4\u2019ten % 13,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi ve bu tablonun gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne olan etkilerini\u00a0Emlakjet Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Gizem Moral Kunter<\/b>\u00a0de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018Kritik nokta maliyet enflasyonu\u2019<\/span><\/b><\/h3>\n

\u00d6zellikle Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu’nun ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n kritik bir karar oldu\u011funu ve bu karar\u0131n arkas\u0131nda artan kredi faiz oran\u0131 ortam\u0131nda t\u00fcketici talebinin daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, bunun da enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011finin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn yatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Kunter, \u201cAncak buradaki kritik nokta ise maliyet enflasyonu. \u00d6zellikle artan kur ortam\u0131nda \u00fcretim girdi maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde tetikleyebilir. MB\u2019nin bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc enflasyon raporunda y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahminini % 8,4\u2019ten % 13,4\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi de tam olarak bu kritik noktaya dikkat \u00e7ekiyor\u201d dedi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sermayesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geli\u015ftiricilerin d\u00f6nemi ba\u015fl\u0131yor<\/span><\/b><\/h3>\n

Bu geli\u015fmelerin gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne olan etkilerine de\u011finen Kunter, \u201cFaiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselen seyri, talebi daraltt\u0131. Her ne kadar markal\u0131 konut \u00fcreticilerinin 30 Haziran\u2019a kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fckleri kampanyalar, Haziran\u2019da konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0<\/span>bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 22,4 art\u0131rarak 2017 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan bu yana konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fatsa da, \u00fcreticilerin elinde belli bir konut sto\u011fu birikimi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Endeksa verilerine g\u00f6re, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn nabz\u0131n\u0131 elinde tutan \u0130stanbul\u2019da sat\u0131lmay\u0131 bekleyen 220 bin 771 konut mevcut. 1,5 y\u0131lda sat\u0131lan 347 bin 702 konuta ra\u011fmen sat\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken konut say\u0131s\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek.\u00a0Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde yat\u0131r\u0131m amac\u0131yla konut talebinde bulunanlar i\u00e7in de hem konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n eskisi kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 artmamas\u0131, hem de alternatif finansal ara\u00e7lar\u0131n getirilerinin konut toplam getirisinin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle sat\u0131\u015flarda yava\u015flama e\u011filimi hakim. Bunlarla birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem, sermaye kuvvetli geli\u015ftiricilerin varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirecekleri bir d\u00f6nem\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yeni projelerde fiyatlar, y\u00fcksek in\u015faat ve arsa maliyetiyle d\u00fc\u015femez<\/span><\/b><\/h3>\n

\u0130stanbul\u2019da \u00f6zellikle konut sto\u011funun yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, arz fazlas\u0131 bulunan, amortisman s\u00fcresinin uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde konut kredisi faizlerinin de artmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle konut fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu belirten Kunter, \u201cStok fazlas\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan b\u00f6lgelerde bile ya\u015fansa, fiyatlar \u2018s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 seviyede\u2019 artma veya d\u00fc\u015fme grafi\u011fi izliyor. Fikirtepe, arz fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eken ilk b\u00f6lge. Yine \u00f6rne\u011fin Beyo\u011flu, Kartal-Maltepe, \u0130stinye-Tarabya, Kad\u0131k\u00f6y-G\u00f6ztepe gibi il\u00e7elerin arz\u0131n talepten y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu\u00a0<\/span>b\u00f6lgeleri baz al\u0131nmak kayd\u0131yla fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri g\u00f6zlenebiliyor\u201d dedi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Konuta yat\u0131r\u0131m noktas\u0131nda ise \u00f6zellikle mevduat getirisinin % 18 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ister istemez tercih yapma noktas\u0131nda duraklatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Kunter, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti: \u201cYeni projeler \u00f6zelinde bakarsak, hem dolar kuru nedeniyle in\u015faat maliyetlerinin s\u00fcrekli y\u00fckselmesi hem de arsa maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksekli\u011fi ve arsa k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle fiyatlar\u0131n yeni projelerde d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, yine pazarl\u0131kla ikinci elde ve arz\u0131n talebin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi, proje y\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olan belli ba\u015fl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerdeki projelerin birinci ve ikinci ellerinde kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kmaya devam edecektir.\u201d Kunter, bu noktada yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmet y\u00f6netiminden sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6ncelikli olarak talep etti\u011fi \u2018ucuz arsa temini\u2019 konusunun h\u0131zl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>Bankalar\u0131n kaynak yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitlenmesi \u015fart<\/span><\/b><\/b><\/h3>\n

\u00a0<\/span>Konuta ili\u015fkin faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in bankalar\u0131n kaynak yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini hat\u0131rlatan Kunter, \u201cMevcutta banka kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n % 65\u2019i mevduata dayal\u0131 ve bunun da % 90\u2019\u0131 3 ay ve daha k\u0131sa vadeli mevduatlar. Bu haliyle mevduat\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunu k\u0131sa vadeli olmas\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sistem i\u00e7inde k\u0131sa vadeli fonlama ile konut gibi ortalama vadenin 8 y\u0131l gibi uzun vadeli oldu\u011fu bir sekt\u00f6re kredi kulland\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor\u201d diye konu\u015ftu. Bilan\u00e7olardaki bu vade uyumsuzlu\u011fu sorununu a\u015fabilmenin yolunun bankalar\u0131n kaynak yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131ndan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini kaydeden Kunter, \u201cBu da her \u00fclke piyasas\u0131nda uygulanan sistem olan ve bizim de 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, menkul k\u0131ymetle\u015ftirmeden ge\u00e7iyor. Bu uzun vadeli bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm ama \u00f6zellikle konut taraf\u0131nda mevcut ko\u015fullarda bu \u015fekilde ilerlemek gerekiyor\u201d dedi.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kurter \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti: \u201c\u0130kincil piyasa mekanizmas\u0131 olursa, \u2018Emeklilik fonlar\u0131 toplad\u0131klar\u0131 fonun y\u00fczde 10-15\u2019ini mortgage sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne yat\u0131rabilir\u2019 denirse taze kaynak giri\u015fi olur ama daha \u00f6nemlisi yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelmesi\u2026 O da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin genel alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkili.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Konutta ortalama kredi faizlerinin % 15,79 seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 ile Haziran enflasyonu ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiren Emlakjet Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Gizem Moral Kunter, \u201cMB\u2019nin stratejisi, enflasyonda iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar s\u0131k\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek. Burada kritik konu maliyet enflasyonu.\u00a0Artan kur ortam\u0131nda \u00fcretim girdi maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde tetikleyebilir. MB\u2019nin bug\u00fcn y\u0131lsonu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23569,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[26],"tags":[3188,953],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23568"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23568"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23568\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23574,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23568\/revisions\/23574"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23569"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}