{"id":18328,"date":"2017-10-12T14:07:21","date_gmt":"2017-10-12T11:07:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/?p=18328"},"modified":"2018-07-05T17:21:34","modified_gmt":"2018-07-05T14:21:34","slug":"turkiye-2017de-basardi-simdi-sira-yeni-yilda-2018-alarmi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/?p=18328","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye 2017\u2019de ba\u015fard\u0131, \u015fimdi s\u0131ra yeni y\u0131lda 2018 alarm\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bir yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Bak\u0131\u015f, makroekonomik veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda geride kalan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyre\u011fi de\u011ferlendirdi, gelecek y\u0131la dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerde bulundu. Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019a g\u00f6re, beklendi\u011fi gibi 2016\u2019dan sonra g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma ya\u015fanan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de y\u0131l sonuna kadar tablo pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak 2018\u2019le ilgili beklentiler alarm veriyor. Risk unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, cari a\u00e7\u0131k, i\u015fsizlikle ilgili sinyaller kritik.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Bak\u0131\u015f, d\u00fcnyada ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonominin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tuttu, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem seyir rotas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019a g\u00f6re, geride kalan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fcresel ticaret ve finans piyasalar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelerle d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2017\u2019de bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha iyi bir performans sergiledi. K\u00fcresel ekonominin 2018\u2019deki seyrini ise ABD-Kuzey Kore gerilimi, Almanya\u2019da koalisyon sanc\u0131s\u0131, Katalonya\u2019daki ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k hamlesi, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fanan hareketlilik ve s\u0131n\u0131r b\u00f6lgesindeki gibi kriz potansiyeli y\u00fcksek ba\u015fl\u0131klar belirleyecek. Bak\u0131\u015f, risk merkezlerinin yan\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de temkinli bir tablo \u00e7iziyor. Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019ta \u201cReel sekt\u00f6r d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki g\u00fcven endeksleri sonbahara d\u00f6n\u00fck karamsar bir ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Reel sekt\u00f6r g\u00fcven endeksinde d\u0131\u015f ticaretteki canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n etkisiyle y\u00fczde 0,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f olsa da t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi y\u00fczde 3,0 geriledi. Hizmet ve perakende sekt\u00f6rlerinde g\u00fcven endeksleri y\u00fczde 2,0 ve 2,3 gerilerken, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00fcven kayb\u0131 y\u00fczde 5,5 oldu. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler k\u0131smen jeopolitik belirsizlikler ve finansal piyasalardaki \u00e7alkant\u0131lar\u0131 yans\u0131tsa da T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine g\u00fcvenin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi gerekiyor. Baz\u0131 ele\u015ftirilerle kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen OVP\u2019deki d\u00fczenlemelerin uygulamaya konmas\u0131 ve hedeflerin geni\u015f kitlelerce benimsenmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7aba g\u00f6sterilmesi gerekiyor\u201d denildi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flayabilir<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2016\u2019dan sonra al\u0131nan tedbirlerin de etkisiyle bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde tamamlayan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019a yans\u0131yan g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130lk yar\u0131da y\u00fczde 5,1 seviyesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ve G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomilerden biri olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 yakalamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak son \u00e7eyrekle ekonomide yava\u015flama belirtileri g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler var. Bununla birlikte, ekonominin y\u0131l genelinde y\u00fczde 5\u2019in \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi, 2018\u2019in ise daha zorlu ge\u00e7ece\u011fi, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 5\u2019in alt\u0131na inebilece\u011fi tahminleri yap\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kalitesi ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik soru i\u015faretleri de devam ediyor.<\/li>\n<li>Vergi gelirlerindeki kademeli toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek \u00fczere al\u0131nan tedbirler b\u00fct\u00e7e performans\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkilemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek \u00fczere Hazine y\u0131ll\u0131k bor\u00e7lanma tavan\u0131na hen\u00fcz y\u0131l bitmeden ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>2016 ikinci yar\u0131dan bu yana b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek \u00fczere kamu harcamalar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken, yeni y\u0131lda baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde yap\u0131lan KDV indirimleri ve istihdam seferberli\u011fi nedeniyle 2017 ba\u015f\u0131nda vergi gelirlerinde ciddi kay\u0131plar ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu nedenle ilk yar\u0131da merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi ciddi bi\u00e7imde bozuldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n kalan d\u00f6neminde vergi gelirlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131 koruyabilece\u011fi ve mali dengedeki bozulmay\u0131 bir miktar frenleyebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yap\u0131sal reformlar hayati \u00f6nemde<u><\/u><u><\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ilk yar\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ve k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki kademeli toparlanman\u0131n verdi\u011fi destek ile h\u00fck\u00fcmet yol haritas\u0131n\u0131 ve ekonomik \u00f6nceliklerini i\u00e7eren 2018-2020 D\u00f6nemi Orta Vadeli Program\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (OVP) yay\u0131mlad\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, istihdam\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesini ama\u00e7layan program, \u00e7ok say\u0131da yap\u0131sal reformu gerekli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<li>OVP\u2019deki rakamsal hedefler \u00e7ok iddial\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmese de bu hedeflerin \u00e7o\u011funa ula\u015fmak kolay de\u011fil. Zira k\u00fcresel ekonomideki orta vadedeki olumlu tabloya kar\u015f\u0131n, riskler \u00f6nemini koruyor. 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5,5 olmas\u0131 hesaplanan GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda da bu seviyede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi hedefleniyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0130\u015fsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 nitelikli b\u00fcy\u00fcme<u><\/u><u><\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>\u00d6te yandan bu seviyede bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n 2017 sonunda olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fczde 10,8\u2019den her y\u0131l bir milyona yak\u0131n istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydederek, program d\u00f6nemi sonunda y\u00fczde 9,6\u2019ya inece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Gelecek \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda i\u015fsizlikte iyile\u015fme sa\u011flayabilecek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin istihdam art\u0131ran yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Yani, i\u015fsizlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin niceli\u011fi de\u011fil, niteli\u011fi \u00f6nemli kazan\u0131yor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda e\u015fitsizlik art\u0131yor<u><\/u><u><\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Gelir adaleti ve b\u00f6lgesel gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki olumsuz tablo devam ediyor. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in 2015 gelirlerini esas alan 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 gelir ve ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re, en zengin y\u00fczde 10\u2019un geliri ile en yoksul y\u00fczde 10\u2019un geliri aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urum da 1,77 puan artarak 38,52 kata y\u00fckseldi. Son iki y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik gelir dilimlerine g\u00f6re t\u00fcm gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n pay\u0131 azal\u0131rken, sadece en zengin y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik dilimin pay\u0131 artt\u0131. En zengin y\u00fczde 5\u2019in pay\u0131 iki y\u0131lda 1,80 puan artarken, toplam gelirden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay ise n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 45\u2019inin gelirinden fazla.<\/li>\n<li><strong>A\u00e7\u0131klar geni\u015fliyor<u><\/u><u><\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki y\u0131lda petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ciddi daralma getirdi. 2017 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ise emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra yurti\u00e7indeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc alt\u0131n talebi ile a\u00e7\u0131k geni\u015fliyor.<\/li>\n<li>Cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki iyile\u015fme, 2014 ve 2015\u2019teki olumlu tablonun ard\u0131ndan 2016\u2019da turizmdeki sorunlarla duraksad\u0131. 2017\u2019nin ilk yedi ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 20,8\u2019lik geni\u015fleme ya\u015fand\u0131. Turizm gelirlerindeki kademeli toparlanmaya kar\u015f\u0131n enerji ve alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar ile d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki geni\u015fleme, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n geni\u015flemesinin nedenleri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2017 sonunda 39 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131 beklenen cari a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in 2018 tahmini 42 milyar dolar.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Turist say\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor, gelirler zay\u0131f<u><\/u><u><\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Turizmde toparlanma var. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye gelen yabanc\u0131 turist say\u0131s\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta y\u00fczde 46,35, Ocak-A\u011fustos d\u00f6neminde ise y\u00fczde 26,41 artt\u0131. Rusya&#8217;dan Temmuz\u2019da gelen turist say\u0131s\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 670,8 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130lk alt\u0131 ayda zay\u0131f bir performans sergilese de Alman turistlerde de A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3,9\u2019luk bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6zlendi. \u00d6te yandan y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana turist say\u0131s\u0131ndaki toparlanmaya kar\u015f\u0131n turizm gelir art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. \u0130lk yedi ayda turizm gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 5,5. Bu e\u011filimin y\u0131l sonuna kadar devam etmesi halinde turis<a name=\"m_-1502613929980195734__GoBack\"><\/a>t say\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2016\u2019daki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n telafi edilebilmesi beklenebilir. Gelirler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise ancak \u00fc\u00e7te birinin telafisi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Turist say\u0131s\u0131nda 2015 seviyesini yakalamak ancak 2018\u2019de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacak. Turizm gelirlerinde 2015\u2019teki seviyeler ise en erken 2019\u2019da yakalanabilecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Enflasyonda \u00e7ift hane bask\u0131s\u0131<u><\/u><u><\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Temmuz\u2019da y\u00fczde 9,79\u2019e inen T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu, A\u011fustos\u2019ta y\u00fczde 10,68 ile tekrar \u00e7ift haneli seviyelere y\u00fckseldi. A\u011fustos\u2019taki h\u0131zlanmada enerji fiyatlar\u0131 etkili oldu. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6ntem de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi de enflasyonda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen hareketlere yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. TCMB, bu etki ile Eyl\u00fcl-Ekim ve Kas\u0131m d\u00f6neminde enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/li>\n<li>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi h\u0131z kesse de makroekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131klar nedeniyle faizlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flanam\u0131yor. Bu da kredi maliyetleri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin finansman\u0131 ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan soru i\u015faretleri olu\u015fuyor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><u>KPMG Hakk\u0131nda<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Denetim, vergi ve dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k hizmetleri sunan ve sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6rt uluslararas\u0131 \u015firketten biri olan KPMG, ge\u00e7mi\u015fi 1867 y\u0131l\u0131na dayanan, \u00fcye firmalar a\u011f\u0131 sistemiyle 152 \u00fclkede, 189 binin \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131yla finansal hizmetler, t\u00fcketici \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ve end\u00fcstriyel sekt\u00f6rlerden, g\u0131da, perakende, enerji, telekm\u00fcnikasyon, kimya gibi pek\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6re dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k hizmeti veriyor. KPMG T\u00fcrkiye ise \u0130stanbul merkez ofisinin yan\u0131s\u0131ra Ankara ve \u0130zmir ofisleriyle, 1982 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri 1.000\u2019den fazla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131yla her sekt\u00f6rden 4.000\u2019in \u00fczerinde firmaya sekt\u00f6rler \u00f6zelinde hizmet verirken, rekabette ihtiya\u00e7 duyduklar\u0131 end\u00fcstriyel trendler hakk\u0131nda de\u011fer yaratan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler sunuyor. Detayl\u0131 bilgi i\u00e7in\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.kpmg.com.tr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?hl=tr&amp;q=http:\/\/www.kpmg.com.tr\/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1507881230217000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH9aDCKUWcFyfhS2FnpTdo2rrXpEA\">www.kpmg.com.tr<\/a>\u00a0adresine ba\u015fvurabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Bilgi \u0130\u00e7in:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><u>MPR \u0130leti\u015fim Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Banu Kurt, (212) 438 63 50 \/117 &#8211; 532 461 21 05,\u00a0<a href=\"mailto:bkurt@mpr.com.tr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bkurt@mpr.com.tr<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Bilal Turhal, (212) 438 63 50 \/ 122 &#8211; 0536 350 51 90<a href=\"mailto:bturhal@mpr.com.tr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bturhal@mpr.com.tr<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; KPMG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bir yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Bak\u0131\u015f, makroekonomik veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda geride kalan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyre\u011fi de\u011ferlendirdi, gelecek y\u0131la dair \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerde bulundu. Bak\u0131\u015f\u2019a g\u00f6re, beklendi\u011fi gibi 2016\u2019dan sonra g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma ya\u015fanan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de y\u0131l sonuna kadar tablo pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak 2018\u2019le ilgili beklentiler alarm veriyor. Risk unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, cari a\u00e7\u0131k, i\u015fsizlikle ilgili sinyaller [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18329,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[5213],"tags":[1258,73,11322,556,276,316],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18328"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18328"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18328\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18330,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18328\/revisions\/18330"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18329"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/emlaktuel.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}